CARACAS (Reuters) – President Hugo Chavez leads the intention of voting for elections of October in Venezuela, but can not neglecting millions of undecided voters who make their current advantage of 13 points is far from being short, according to details of a survey disclosed on Thursday.
The same day in which returned from Cuba after radiotherapy treatment to fight cancer he suffers, also was ratified on October 7 as the date that will be measured with Henrique Capriles, the single candidate of the opposition, in what analysts anticipate as closely fought elections.
“Is a hard battle (…)” “I’m fine and will continue well” said an animated Chavez on his return to Venezuela on Thursday morning to refer to their health. “I have resisted very well treating, thank God.” “Still recovering me from my post operative,” added.
Cancer, appealed once Chávez entrusted have defeated after operations and chemotherapies last year, has forced him to the Socialist leader to maintain an intermittent in its Government presence and cut the pace of his career to extend for six years over the 13 in power.
“I have reduced the speed, but the Government has accelerated,” said Chavez who keep traveling in power while it comes and goes to Cuba for treatment.
The military retired 57-year dismissed the impact of his illness and says constantly to “barrerá” to its rival, the young Governor of the populous Miranda State, who received an avalanche of votes in the primaries of the opposition in February.
According to the latest survey of the respected firm Datanalisis, the intention of vote to both declined slightly in March against February data and at the same time was highlighted a significant portion of undecided of almost 25 percent.
“the undecided definitely will define the presidential election”, said Luis Vicente Leon, President of Datanalisis, who warned that the photo of the intention to vote this time can not be projected in any way to what might happen in October.
Voters are watching with attention if Chavez can recover its vitality and assume a grueling campaign and if Capriles may knead one base of support to give opportunities to the opposition which, while it not pluck in the polls, has between hands his best moment since 1999.
In JAQUE
Although there has been formal campaign start, since the beginning of the year both Government and opposition remain in the street in search of votes.
Chávez emphatically warned his opponents that must commit themselves to respect the election result if they did not want to risk reprisals.
“I have information from some banks that support all these movements, private banks that would not be bad pass for the fatherland, for the people.” “Or large national companies and some international who earn enough money and support the plans of the opposition,” said Thursday in a televised event night.
“Would not be bad or a decree of nationalization of large companies for violating the Constitution”, said in a warning to the companies which in their view would be betting on a violent outcome before or after the elections.
Chavez has nationalized vast sectors of the national economy over the last decade, from large oil projects to commercial networks to detail, and much of the companies involved have not yet been offset.
“If they can think kicking the table (…) not only them will defeat.” “Do they repent forever”, said, adding that it is preparing a plan to counteract any outbreak of violence, which includes order to the armed forces and the intelligence services continue with caution to the police of States led by opposition leaders.
The campaign will start in July and a month before candidates must register their applications, according to the schedule approved by the National Electoral Council (CNE) to ratify the date of polls, clearing up doubts about a possible change after the recurrence of cancer of Chávez.
“From this moment call officially the presidential election for October 7 and the regional election on December 16”, on Thursday told journalists the President of the CNE, Tibisay Lucena, thus giving the official whistle for the start of the electoral timetable that may not already be amended.
The existing presidential term will end January 10, 2013.
The definition of the date agreed after hard negotiations between the opposition table of the unit (MUD) and the governing United Socialist Party (PSUV) of Venezuela, is crucial for both sides.
Burning battle
“the battle is alive.” Chávez continues giving it force (silver and media) and is the reference in the election, but this battle is not lost to Capriles. “Their opportunities remain open, although obviously it is not an easy task, in the past the opposition never had a real option in the presidential elections and now Capriles has” said León.
The positive evaluation of the management of Chávez rose to more than 60 per cent in March, substantially above the 51 percent who had in October when he returned to the ring after his convalescence, thanks in part to the emotional connection that the President often establish with its base of support in moments of weakness, according to the poll of Datanalisis.
While the positive assessment of the management of Capriles stood at 50.2 per cent this month, but without giving details Datanálisis added that not must be compared directly the administration of the State with a governorate.
Leon explained that the illness of the President offset part of the positive impact generated by the primary election of the opposition of the intention to vote towards Capriles, a phenomenon picked up by several surveys.
Intention of vote measurements made immediately after these primaries differ considerably, with data ranging from a technical draw a considerable advantage for Chávez.
“There is a flood in the mind of the voter.” “That shortened the impact of electoral momentum of the primaries”, says León.
, However, underscored the difficulty that Chávez would have on the election, while in the campaign for the presidential elections of 2006 he left with a 40-point advantage in intention to vote on the opposition candidate at that time, Manuel Rosales, on this occasion the gap is much smaller.
While Capriles travels visiting House to house the oil country in search of votes, even cities considered forts of the ruling.
Survey of Datanalisis, which culminated on 7 March, was done with a sample of 1,300 people at the national level and a margin of error of 2.73 percentage points.
(Written by Eyanir Chinea and Mario Naranjo.) (Edited by Silene RamÃrez)
